| open | activity opener: the policy rate above its low of the prior 365 days, points (the FOMC target range's upper limit, FRED DFEDTARU) | 0.25 | 0.1 | 250% past its line | Nov 6, 2026 | Dec 9, 2026 |
| open | activity opener: S&P 500 below its high of the prior 250 trading days, log percent, at the latest close | 5.82 | 10.0 | 58% | Nov 6, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 |
| open | survey-week insured rate, rise above its 52-week low (branch W, line 0.4) | 0.2 | 0.4 | 50% | Oct 1, 2026 | Nov 26, 2026 |
| open | survey-week insured rate, rise above its 52-week low (branch V, line 0.6) | 0.2 | 0.6 | 33% | Oct 1, 2026 | Nov 26, 2026 |
| open | sudden stop: S&P 500 below its high of the prior twenty trading days, percent, at the latest close (the claims week reads the close before its release, the search week the day's close) | 5.5126 | 20.0 | 28% | Nov 6, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 |
| open | state breadth, share of states with the insured rate 0.20 above its 52-week low | 0.098 | 0.6 | 16% | Oct 24, 2026 | Nov 12, 2026 |
| open | insured rate, rise above its 52-week low (co-signed within 0.2 of the line) | 0.0 | 0.45 | 0% | Oct 24, 2026 | Nov 12, 2026 |
| open | insured rate, rise above its 52-week low | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0% | Oct 24, 2026 | Nov 12, 2026 |
| open | household co-signer: 3-month average unemployment rate above its 12-month low, as last published (signs a near-line insured-rate or claims proposal) | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0% | Oct 1, 2026 | Dec 4, 2026 |
| open | Sahm gap (three-month average unemployment rate above its twelve-month low, as it stood on the release day; it proposes only with the vacancy rate 0.25 or more off its 4-month high in two of the prior 12 months) | 0.0 | 0.3667 | 0% | Oct 1, 2026 | Dec 4, 2026 |
| open | activity opener: state breadth, the share of states with the insured-rate proxy 0.45 point above its twelve-month low, in the latest month public (the gate) | 0.0 | 0.33 | 0% | Sep 2026 | Nov 21, 2026 |
| open | initial claims, 4-week mean above its base (the higher of its 52-week low and 85% of its 5-year median), percent (co-signed within 15 of the line) | -1.0204 | 60 | -2% | Oct 31, 2026 | Nov 12, 2026 |
| open | sudden stop: one week of initial claims above the claims base, percent (fires with the S&P 500 20 percent under its 20-day high) | -3.5714 | 35.0 | -10% | Oct 31, 2026 | Nov 12, 2026 |
| open | sudden stop: the search week - 7-day mean of Google searches for "unemployment" above its base, percent (fires with the S&P 500 20 percent under its 20-day high at that day's close; known the next morning; the earliest term fires) | -6.844 | 35.0 | -20% | Nov 5, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 |
| open | activity opener: industrial production as published, below its high of the prior twelve months, log points (one of four conditions, with the S&P 500 10 percent below its 250-day high, the policy rate 0.1 point above its 365-day low and state breadth at 33 percent; the cell and gate the causal walk from 1948 chose) | -0.66 | 2.0 | -33% | Oct 16, 2026 | Nov 17, 2026 |
| close | initial claims 3-week mean, drop from its 26-week maximum, log points | 16.4251 | 6.0 | 274% | Oct 31, 2026 | Nov 12, 2026 |
| close | continued claims 4-week mean below its 26-week maximum, log points | 5.6972 | 3.0 | 190% | Oct 31, 2026 | Nov 12, 2026 |
| close | run of falling weeks | 3.0 | 3.0 | 100% | Oct 31, 2026 | Nov 12, 2026 |
| close | hump above the 52-week minimum, log points | 16.4251 | 20.0 | 82% | Oct 31, 2026 | Nov 12, 2026 |
| close | insured rate 4-week mean below its 26-week maximum, tenths | 1.0 | 3.0 | 33% | Oct 31, 2026 | Nov 12, 2026 |
| confirm | starts x vacancy pair (starts 29 log points below their 12-month high and the vacancy rate 0.25 off its 4-month high; 1 = both) | 0.2923 | 1.0 | 29% | Sep 1, 2026 | Nov 18, 2026 |
| confirm | vacancy rate, 4-month mean below its 4-month maximum (openings as they stood on the JOLTS release day) | 0.06 | 0.25 | 24% | Sep 1, 2026 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| close | S&P 500 above its 26-week low on the release day, percent | 2.1245 | 15.0 | 14% | Oct 31, 2026 | Nov 12, 2026 |
| confirm | hours pair (factory hours 2% off their 12-month high and nondurable jobs -1.2% over 3 months, as they stood on the release day; 1 = both) | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0% | Oct 1, 2026 | Dec 4, 2026 |
| confirm | housing x rate pair (starts or building permits 29 log points below their 12-month high, and the unemployment rate 0.4 above its 18-month low, each as it stood on its release day; 1 = both halves at their lines) | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0% | Oct 1, 2026 | Nov 18, 2026 |
| confirm | paper spread (the wider of AA financial and AA nonfinancial 30-day paper over the 3-month bill), 13-week mean above its 39-week low, points | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0% | Oct 30, 2026 | Nov 9, 2026 |