Bristow-Hall Business Cycle Program

Duke Bristow · Anthony Hall · University of Southern California

Current readings

The tools

Papers

Hall & Bristow · FBE Working Paper · September 2026 · PDF
The Bristow-Hall Rule: A New Methodology for Detecting and Dating Recessions in Real Time
Bristow & Hall · the rule, its pre-registered clauses, and the walk-forward record · in preparation
The Damage Index: A Richter Scale for Recessions
Hall & Bristow · how deep, how broad and where - the state and industry disturbances a national date hides · in preparation
BRISTOW-HALL BUSINESS CYCLE PROGRAM
Real-time dating of the American business cycle.