Source: Bristow, Duke and Hall, Anthony Release: Bristow-Hall Rule Recession Indicator
Units: Index, 1.00 = recession, 0–10 damage
Data through:
Frequency:
Notes:
The Bristow-Hall Rule signals a recession’s start when a labor measure (insured unemployment, initial claims or the Sahm gap, national or state) crosses its threshold and a demand measure (job openings, hours, housing, credit or stocks) confirms it, or when production and stocks fall, the policy rate rises and unemployment spreads across states. It signals the end when initial claims fall from their peak and a second measure confirms it.
The index shows how near a call is (1.00 = recession); during a recession it adds a damage grade (0–10, log scale; 1929–33 = 10) from unemployment, real GDP and industrial production.
This indicator is based on real-time data: each call uses only data as published that day, with thresholds set only from recessions already dated.
Citation:
Months after the end of the peak month (for 2024, the peak month Paper 1 gives*)
The Sahm rule: Sahm, Claudia (2019), "Direct Stimulus Payments to Individuals," in Recession Ready: Fiscal Policies to Stabilize the American Economy, The Hamilton Project and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. Paper
Months after the end of the trough month (for 2024, the trough month Paper 1 gives*)
The Bristow Rule: Hall, Anthony and Duke Bristow (2026), "Recession Signals Without Recession and the Case of 2024," USC Marshall FBE Working Paper. Paper
The rule firedThe Sahm rule crossed 0.50 (peaks; real time)The Bristow Rule dated the end (troughs; real time)The NBER announced